Bangladesh’s carbon emissions surge 50pc in a decade: Study

Bangladesh’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels have increased by nearly 50 per cent over the past decade, rising from 77 million tonnes in 2015 to 115.9 million tonnes in 2025, according to a new international study.

The findings, published in the 2026 Global Carbon Budget on Tuesday, show a mixed picture of global efforts to tackle climate change. While fossil fuel emissions are projected to decline slightly this year, researchers warn that the reduction does not necessarily signal a lasting change in global emissions trends.

Prepared by more than 140 international scientists, the report estimates that global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will reach 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026, down 0.4 per cent from the previous year.

 The decline is expected to be driven partly by the rapid expansion of renewable energy and partly by disruptions in energy markets linked to the Iran conflict.

However, total global CO2 emissions, including those from land-use changes such as deforestation, are projected to rise to 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, compared with 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025.

Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, lead author of the study, said the projected decline in fossil fuel emissions was encouraging but cautioned that geopolitical disruptions were partly responsible. He stressed that faster deployment of clean energy was essential to achieve sustainable reductions.

The report projects oil-related emissions to fall by 1.9 per cent and natural gas emissions by 0.3 per cent in 2026. In contrast, coal-related emissions are expected to increase by 0.6 per cent.

Renewable energy is nevertheless making significant progress. Emissions avoided through solar and wind power increased from 280 million tonnes in 2010 to 4.1 billion tonnes in 2025 and are projected to reach 4.6 billion tonnes this year.

Country-level projections also reveal contrasting trends. China, responsible for 32 per cent of global fossil fuel emissions, is expected to record a 0.9 per cent decline in 2026. Emissions in the United States and European Union are projected to fall by 1.3 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, India's emissions are expected to rise by 4.4 per cent.

The report also warns that the remaining global carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius stands at just 150 billion tonnes, equivalent to less than four years of emissions at current rates.
Meanwhile, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are projected to reach 427.7 parts per million this year, 54 per cent above pre-industrial levels.