Pakistan Seeks Climate Justice at COP31, Calls for Grants and Inclusive Energy Transition

Pakistan is heading to the COP31 climate summit with a stark paradox: rooftop solar is expanding rapidly and Sindh possesses some of the country's richest renewable energy potential, yet millions of people continue to face inadequate electricity access and growing climate vulnerabilities.

According to the 2023 census, only 46 per cent of rural households in Sindh reported electricity as their main source of lighting, compared with around 70 per cent across the province and 84 per cent nationally. Experts argue that climate action should be measured not by investment mobilised or generation capacity installed, but by improvements in people's lives, livelihoods and the environment.

The rapid expansion of decentralised solar has reduced dependence on imported fuels and helped households withstand global energy price shocks. However, the national grid is struggling to keep pace with this growth. Reliable and affordable integration requires substantial investment in transmission networks, battery storage, power evacuation and distribution reforms.

Financial constraints, including circular debt, distribution losses and capacity payment obligations, are also threatening the sustainability of the energy transition. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) recorded persistent load-shedding during FY2024-25, including in areas served by HESCO and SEPCO, even when electricity was available.

In 2026, NEPRA replaced net metering with net billing, reducing the buyback rate for new rooftop solar users from around Rs26 to Rs10-11 per unit. Although the change aims to prevent fixed grid costs from being shifted to households without solar systems, analysts warn it could discourage larger rooftop installations and increase reliance on battery storage. It may also accelerate grid defection, leaving consumers unable to afford solar panels to shoulder the costs of maintaining a shrinking electricity network.

The Indus Delta presents another serious climate challenge. Seawater intrusion, declining freshwater flows, coastal erosion and shrinking mangrove forests are threatening agriculture, fishing and livestock. A May 2025 investigation by Dawn, citing Sindh Revenue Department data, reported that more than 124 dehs across six coastal talukas of Thatta and Sujawal had been affected by seawater intrusion over a decade, with approximately 1.2 million acres reported submerged.

Adaptation initiatives, experts say, must be led by women, fishing communities, farmers and pastoralists who possess first-hand knowledge of these vulnerable ecosystems.

Pakistan's third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commits to reducing projected emissions by 50 per cent by 2035, comprising a 17 per cent unconditional reduction and another 33 per cent conditional on international support. Achieving this target will require approximately US$565.7 billion in climate investment.

Pakistan is expected to press five key demands at COP31:
Grants, not debt, Accessible finance, Investment in the grid, Community safeguards and a just transition shift towards cleaner energy.

Pakistan's central message at COP31 is that a just energy transition means much more than replacing one fuel with another. It requires fundamental changes in how energy is produced, governed and shared, alongside predictable, accessible and non-debt-creating international support to turn climate commitments into lasting improvements in people's lives.