Nearly nine years after the state-patronized genocide at Myanmar's Rakhine State in August 2017, Bangladesh continues to shoulder one of the world's largest and most protracted refugee crises. What began as an emergency humanitarian response has evolved into a complex political, economic and security challenge with no clear end in sight. Today, officially more than 1.2 million Rohingya refugees are living in Bangladesh. But, in reality, the Rohingya population is over 2 million in Bangladesh due to thousands of Rohingya childbirth and unaccounted influx, turning this into a greater concern. The scale, duration and uncertainty of this crisis are now posing serious risks not only to the refugees themselves, but also to Bangladesh's national stability and development trajectory.
The dramatic surge in Rohingya numbers after August 25, 2017, remains one of the fastest refugee movements in recent history. Within weeks, over 700,000 Rohingya crossed into Bangladesh, joining several hundred thousand who had fled earlier waves of persecution in 1978, 1991-92, and subsequent years. Since then, despite tightened border surveillance and diplomatic efforts, smaller groups have continued to enter Bangladesh, fleeing ongoing violence, forced recruitment, food shortages and insecurity inside Myanmar. The camps, once envisioned as temporary shelters, have effectively become semi-permanent settlements.
The sheer concentration of refugees in Cox's Bazar has transformed the region. Kutupalong-Balukhali, often described as the largest refugee settlement in the world, is home to hundreds of thousands of Rohingya within a few square kilometers. Environmental degradation, including deforestation, soil erosion and pressure on groundwater, has severely affected the local ecosystem. Host communities, themselves economically vulnerable, have experienced rising commodity prices, wage depression in informal labor markets and increased competition for scarce resources.
Despite sustained diplomatic engagement, repatriation remains elusive. Several attempts at initiating returns in 2018 and 2019 failed when refugees refused to go back without guarantees of safety, citizenship and rights. Since the military coup in Myanmar in February 2021, prospects for voluntary and dignified repatriation have grown even dimmer. Rakhine State itself is now a theatre of intense confrontation between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army, an ethnic armed organization that has expanded its territorial control in recent years.
The dramatic surge in Rohingya numbers after August 25, 2017, remains
one of the fastest refugee movements in recent history. Within weeks,
over 700,000 Rohingya crossed into Bangladesh, joining several hundred
thousand who had fled earlier waves of persecution in 1978, 1991-92, and
subsequent years.
Both the junta authorities and the Arakan Army have shown little genuine commitment to restoring Rohingya rights. The Myanmar military, which oversaw the 2017 atrocities, continues to deny citizenship to the Rohingya and refuses to recognize them as one of the country's official ethnic groups. On the other hand, although the Arakan Army presents itself as a champion of Rakhine autonomy, it has not clearly articulated an inclusive political framework that guarantees equal rights and security for the Rohingya population.
Meanwhile, humanitarian funding for the Rohingya response in Bangladesh has steadily declined. Global crises elsewhere have diverted donor attention. Food assistance levels have fluctuated, and fears of ration cuts have triggered anxiety and unrest within the camps. For families entirely dependent on aid, even a modest reduction in support can translate into desperation. With limited access to formal employment and movement restrictions in place, refugees have few lawful means to supplement their needs.
This prolonged dependency carries profound social consequences. Nearly half of the Rohingya population in Bangladesh is children. Many were born in the camps and have never seen Myanmar. Although learning centers operate under the Myanmar curriculum framework, educational opportunities remain restricted and do not lead to recognized certification. A generation is growing up in confinement, with limited prospects and mounting frustration. Such conditions create fertile ground for criminal networks and radical influences.
Indeed, security concerns have become increasingly prominent. Bangladeshi authorities have reported the presence of armed groups and criminal syndicates operating inside the camps. Incidents of targeted killings, abductions, drug trafficking and human trafficking have been recorded over the past several years. The camps' proximity to the Myanmar border and to established smuggling routes in the Bay of Bengal has compounded vulnerabilities. Some Rohingya have been falling prey to trafficking rings. There have also been allegations of forced recruitment attempts by armed actors across the border. For Bangladesh, the risk is not only localized crime but also the possibility of cross-border militancy and long-term instability.
The economic burden on Bangladesh is substantial. While international donors fund much of the humanitarian operation, the government bears significant administrative, security and infrastructure costs. The presence of a large informal labor pool willing to work for lower wages has affected local employment patterns. Tourism has faced periodic disruptions due to security concerns and the global perception of instability. Inflationary pressures in surrounding communities have further strained relations between hosts and refugees.
While Dhaka has demonstrated remarkable generosity in opening its borders in 2017, it has also drawn clear limits regarding local integration and formal employment. From the government's perspective, granting broader rights could signal permanence and weaken diplomatic leverage for repatriation. The international community's response has been marked by sympathy but insufficient resolve. Numerous resolutions have been passed at the United Nations General Assembly and the Human Rights Council condemning abuses against the Rohingya. Cases have been filed at the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court addressing allegations of genocide and crimes against humanity. However, tangible improvements on the ground in Myanmar remain absent.
Major global powers have imposed targeted sanctions, yet these measures have neither altered the junta's behavior nor created a viable pathway for return. The silence or muted engagement of influential global actors has been particularly disappointing. Geopolitical calculations in Southeast Asia, strategic rivalries and economic interests have often overshadowed the urgency of the Rohingya crisis. While world leaders routinely reaffirm support for Bangladesh's humanitarian efforts, few have exerted sustained diplomatic pressure on Myanmar to restore citizenship rights and guarantee safety for returnees.
For Bangladesh, the risks of indefinite stagnation are considerable. Social tensions between host communities and refugees could intensify, especially if economic conditions worsen nationally. Security expenditures will continue to rise. Environmental degradation may become irreversible in certain areas. Moreover, the reputational burden of hosting the world's largest stateless population indefinitely could complicate Bangladesh's development priorities. At the same time, the humanitarian dimension cannot be ignored. The Rohingya are victims of systematic persecution and statelessness. Any durable solution must ensure their voluntary, safe and dignified return with full citizenship and equal rights in Myanmar. The longer the crisis persists, the more complex and entrenched it becomes.
A sustainable path forward requires coordinated international engagement that goes beyond emergency aid. Diplomatic initiatives must prioritize creating conditions in Rakhine State that address security, freedom of movement, property restitution and citizenship. Regional actors, particularly members of ASEAN, have a critical role to play in facilitating dialogue and exerting pressure. Donor countries must maintain funding levels to prevent humanitarian deterioration in Bangladesh while simultaneously investing in development support for host communities.
Bangladesh, for its part, faces a delicate balancing act. It must safeguard national interests and security while upholding humanitarian principles. Carefully designed livelihood initiatives, expanded education and improved camp governance could mitigate some risks without implying permanent integration. Such measures would require strong oversight, community consultation and international backing.
The Rohingya crisis is a test of the international system's capacity to protect vulnerable populations and enforce basic human rights. The continued denial of citizenship and security to the Rohingya in Myanmar represents a profound moral and political failure. Without meaningful global action to ensure dignified repatriation and restore Rohingya rights, the burden on Bangladesh will grow heavier, and the risks-humanitarian, economic and security-will deepen. The time for symbolic statements has long passed. Hence, now we only hope for decisive, coordinated and sustained effort to resolve one of the most pressing displacement crises of our time.
The writer is Chief Editor at Mohammadi News Agency (MNA) and Editor at Kishore Bangla
