The country is likely to witness flooding in the Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins in July- August this year due to heavy rainfall in the upstream catchment areas, officials of the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) warned in a forecast.
Sarder Udoy Raihan, executive engineer of the FFWC, said the country remains highly vulnerable during this period. Intense monsoon rains in major river basins typically trigger widespread inundation, he added.
According to the forecast on Thursday, water levels in the Brahmaputra and Jamuna rivers will rise over the next four days, with situation expecting to stabilise only on the fifth day.
Between July 4 and 7, these rivers may cross the danger warning mark in Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur and Bogura, threatening to inundate adjacent low-lying areas in these districts.
Similarly, the Surma and Kushiyara rivers may flow at the warning level in Sylhet and Sunamganj over the next 72 hours. This will keep several low-lying areas submerged in the Upper Meghna basin.
Water levels in the Ganges and Padma rivers will continue to rise over the next five days, yet expected to remain below the danger mark. Low-lying areas of the Brahmaputra basin are already inundated, Raihan mentioned.
The Meghna basin currently remains stable in the absence of heavy upstream rain. But a potential low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal could trigger sudden coastal flooding this month.
Waters are currently flowing at the warning stage at the Teesta river in Dalia and Tarapur. The Kushiyara in Fenchuganj and Markuli, and the Someshwari in Kolmakanda are also at the danger levels.
The FFWC now provides inland flood forecasts 10 to 15 days in advance. Forecasting for coastal rivers is currently done three days ahead.
Historical data underscores the severity of this seasonal threat. The synchronisation of flood peaks in the Brahmaputra and Meghna basins is considered the greatest flood risk.
This specific phenomenon submerged nearly 30,000 square kilometres of the northeast in 2004. Earlier, similar downpours led to the devastating 1988 floods that inundated 60 per cent of the country. The 1998 deluge displaced 30 million people across the nation. More recently, the 2022 and 2024 floods affected over 13 million people.
