Six months into Iran war, almost half of global oil flows from war zones

LONDON Aug 25: Almost half the world's oil comes from countries affected by conflict in 2026, Reuters calculations show, underscoring that current disruptions have eclipsed previous energy crises.

Six months ago, US and Israeli attacks on Iran triggered what has become the largest oil supply crisis on record, with no clear end in sight.

At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine war has forced production and refining cuts, including in nearby Kazakhstan this year.

Ongoing conflict in Libya and US restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports at the start of the year have added further strain.

Together, countries affected by those conflicts produced about 45 million barrels per day of oil based on 2025 output, accounting for more than 43% of global supply, according to Reuters calculations using International Energy Agency data.

Countries which supplied roughly half of the world's oil last year have been struck by oil production and refining capacity outages this year as a result of conflicts and extreme weather The disruptions have increased the world's reliance on US oil supplies, though that too has occasionally been disrupted by severe weather.

Not all of this year's supply disruptions happened at the same time.

With Saudi Arabia re-routing oil to the Red Sea and Gulf exporters sneaking oil secretly out of the Strait of Hormuz, the current Gulf oil disruption stands at around 5 million to 7 million bpd, according to analysts' estimates.

Middle East oil infrastructure impacted by Iran war But risks to total flows remain high, as attacks in the Red Sea and near Egypt's Suez Canal in July demonstrated. �"REUTERS