A developing El Nino weather pattern could intensify heatwaves, drought and extreme weather across Bangladesh and South Asia, prompting warnings from climate experts and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) about the need for urgent preparedness measures.
The WMO said on Tuesday that a shift had been observed in the Equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures rising rapidly from late April to mid-May, indicating that El Nino conditions were developing. The agency warned that a potentially strong El Nino could exacerbate drought, heavy rainfall and heatwaves on both land and in the ocean.
Bangladesh has already emerged as one of the countries most severely affected by intensifying global heat. Rising temperatures and humidity are restricting daily activities for millions of people and pushing parts of South Asia towards conditions that scientists describe as increasingly "unlivable".
Professor D AKM Saiful Islam of the Institute of Water and Flood Management at BUET said a possible super El Nino is raising fresh concerns for Bangladesh, which has limited capacity to cope with extreme heat.
"The key difference between wealthier and poorer countries lies not in the intensity of the heat but in their capacity to adapt, including access to air conditioning, cooling centres, workplace protections, public health systems and crop warning mechanisms. Bangladesh cannot manage this challenge alone," he said.
He stressed the need for both short- and long-term action plans involving the ministries responsible for water resources, agriculture, disaster management, health and energy, as well as civil society organisations.
"We have a long-term adaptation plan, but in the short term we have very little in hand. We cannot even provide drinking water to rickshaw pullers in city areas during extreme heat," he said.
According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department's long-range forecast, rainfall is likely to remain below normal in June, while both daytime and night-time temperatures are expected to stay above average.
El Nino is a climate pattern that develops in the Pacific Ocean when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific rise above normal levels. The WMO said temperatures are approaching the threshold used to determine the onset of El Niño, with unusually warm subsurface conditions creating a reservoir of heat that is driving surface warming.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo urged countries to prepare for a potentially strong event, warning that it could worsen drought and heavy rainfall while increasing the risk of heatwaves.
