As more than 1.27 million students sit for the Higher Secondary Certificate (HSC) and equivalent examinations this year, the attention of policymakers, parents and the media will naturally focus on pass rates, GPA-5 achievers and examination management. Yet perhaps the most alarming education statistic lies not inside the examination halls but outside them. Nearly 36 per cent of the students who registered for Class XI two years ago are not taking part in the HSC examination this year. In absolute terms, more than 5,50,000 young people have disappeared from the formal education system before reaching one of the country’s most important educational milestones.
This is not merely an examination issue. It is a national development challenge, a labour market challenge and a social justice challenge. Unless Bangladesh understands why these young people are leaving the education system and acts decisively, the country risks undermining decades of progress in expanding access to secondary education.
The figures are deeply concerning. About one-third of general education students, over half of vocational students, and more than 44 per cent of madrasa students have not reached the HSC or equivalent examinations. These are not isolated statistics but evidence of systemic weaknesses across Bangladesh’s secondary education system.
For years, Bangladesh has rightly celebrated its success in increasing enrolment in primary and secondary education. Through stipend programmes, school feeding initiatives, investments in girls’ education, and the expansion of educational institutions, millions of children have entered classrooms who might otherwise have remained excluded. However, enrolment is only the beginning of educational success. The real measure of an education system is whether learners remain engaged, complete their studies and successfully transition into higher education, technical training, or decent employment.
Unfortunately, the current data suggest that Bangladesh has become increasingly successful at getting young people into school but less successful at keeping them there.
The country needs a comprehensive national student tracking system that follows learners across educational stages and generates early warning indicators. Attendance records, continuous assessment results, prolonged absences, socioeconomic vulnerability and psychosocial risks should all be integrated into predictive systems capable of identifying students who require timely support.
The reasons behind this silent exodus are multiple and interconnected. Poverty remains one of the strongest drivers. Many families continue to struggle with rising living costs, compelling adolescents to seek employment before completing their education. For numerous households, especially in rural and climate-vulnerable areas, the opportunity cost of remaining in school has become too high. Instead of preparing for examinations, many young people enter informal employment, agriculture, transport, retail businesses, or overseas migration pathways.
For girls, child marriage remains one of the most persistent barriers. Previous analyses by education authorities found that marriage accounted for a significant proportion of female students who did not appear for public examinations. Despite remarkable progress in reducing child marriage over the past decades, economic hardship, social norms and insecurity continue to push many families towards early marriage, effectively ending girls’ educational aspirations.
Preparation anxiety also deserves attention. Increasingly, students postpone examinations because they feel inadequately prepared or fear poor results. Such decisions reflect deeper issues concerning learning quality rather than simply examination readiness. If learners spend two years in higher secondary education but still lack the confidence to sit for the examination, questions must be asked about classroom teaching, continuous assessment, academic support and student well-being.
The situation within technical and vocational education and training (TVET) deserves particular scrutiny. Bangladesh has consistently emphasised skills development as essential for achieving upper-middle-income status and meeting future labour market demands. Yet the finding that more than half of regularly registered vocational students are not appearing for examinations suggests significant structural problems. Many students may be entering employment before programme completion because immediate income appears more attractive than certification. Others may perceive that qualifications add limited value in labour markets where skills are often acquired informally. This raises important questions regarding curriculum relevance, industry linkages, flexible learning pathways and the perceived value of TVET qualifications.
Equally concerning is the absence of robust evidence explaining why students disappear from the education system. Education authorities acknowledge that they cannot yet identify the precise causes of this high dropout rate. While a research initiative is reportedly being planned, such studies should already have been embedded within the education management information system. Bangladesh has invested considerably in educational data collection, yet much of it focuses on enrolment, infrastructure and examination performance. Far less attention has been devoted to tracking learner progression and identifying students at risk of dropping out before it is too late.
The country needs a comprehensive national student tracking system that follows learners across educational stages and generates early warning indicators. Attendance records, continuous assessment results, prolonged absences, socioeconomic vulnerability and psychosocial risks should all be integrated into predictive systems capable of identifying students who require timely support.
Schools must become more proactive in preventing dropout. Teachers often recognise disengagement early but lack structured mechanisms for counselling, parental engagement and follow-up. Every secondary school should establish a student retention committee to identify and support at-risk learners before they leave education.
Financial support remains essential but requires refinement. Existing stipend programmes have undoubtedly expanded educational participation, yet they should increasingly be linked with learner retention rather than enrolment alone. Conditional financial assistance tied to attendance, progression and examination participation could encourage continued engagement, particularly among economically disadvantaged households. At the same time, support should extend beyond tuition costs to include transportation, digital access, learning materials and examination fees where necessary.
Teacher professional development is equally important. Teachers need stronger skills to identify disengaged learners, provide academic support and foster positive classroom environments. Strengthening foundational literacy, numeracy and study skills remains essential, particularly for students affected by earlier learning disruptions.
Career guidance must also become an integral part of higher secondary education. Many students struggle to understand the relevance of completing HSC or vocational qualifications to their future aspirations. Effective career counselling, stronger links with employers, apprenticeship opportunities and clearer progression pathways into higher education and employment could significantly improve motivation and retention.
The growing dropout rate should also prompt reflection on the broader purpose of education. If students perceive schooling primarily as preparation for high-stakes examinations rather than as a pathway towards meaningful livelihoods and personal development, disengagement becomes more likely. Education systems must therefore balance academic achievement with practical skills, socio-emotional learning, creativity and employability.
Importantly, the challenge extends beyond the Ministry of Education. Preventing student dropout requires coordinated action involving the Ministries of Education, Primary and Mass Education, Women and Children Affairs, Social Welfare, Labour and Employment, Youth Development and Local Government, alongside local administrations, civil society organisations and communities. Education retention should become a shared national priority rather than the responsibility of schools alone.
Bangladesh has demonstrated that strong political commitment and coordinated action can transform education. The same determination is now needed to address rising dropout rates at the higher secondary level.
This year’s HSC examination should therefore serve as a wake-up call rather than merely another annual examination exercise. The success of an education system cannot be measured solely by the number of students who pass. It must also be judged by how many learners it manages to retain, support and empower throughout their educational journey.
The more than 5,50,000 young people missing from this year’s HSC examination represent far more than a statistical loss. They represent unrealised human potential, diminished economic productivity and interrupted dreams. Bangladesh cannot afford to let them become an invisible generation. The country's future competitiveness, social cohesion and sustainable development depend not only on those who enter examination halls today but also on ensuring that every young person who begins the journey has a genuine opportunity to reach the finish line.
The writer is a PhD researcher at the Institute of Education and Research (IER), University of Dhaka
