How prepared is Bangladesh for growing global food prices?

The global food market is once again facing a period of uncertainty. Climate-induced disasters, escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and increasingly erratic weather patterns have pushed international food prices upward. According to forecasts by Goldman Sachs and other global analysts, food prices could rise by as much as 15.8% by 2028, with the upward trend likely to persist. The World Bank has also indicated that food price pressures are expected to remain elevated through 2028.

Recent projections from international organizations suggest that fragile supply chains and rising production costs will continue to drive global food prices over the coming years. For a densely populated country like Bangladesh, this is a serious warning. Volatility in international food markets directly affects the country's import costs, inflation, and food security. The pressing question is whether Bangladesh is adequately prepared to confront this challenge.

Although Bangladesh is largely an agrarian economy, its food production and supply systems are increasingly integrated with global markets. The country is nearly self-sufficient in rice production, but it remains heavily dependent on imports of wheat, edible oil, pulses, animal feed, and several agricultural inputs. Consequently, fluctuations in international prices are quickly transmitted to domestic markets.

According to forecasts by Goldman Sachs and other global analysts, global food prices could rise by as much as 15.8% by 2028, with the upward trend likely to persist. The World Bank has also indicated that food price pressures are expected to remain elevated through 2028.

One of the primary drivers of rising global food prices is climate change. Citing forecasts from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), The Guardian recently reported that the 2026-27 El Niño cycle could significantly increase the risks of floods and droughts worldwide, threatening agricultural production and food supplies. Because of its expected severity, some experts have dubbed it the "Super" or "Godzilla" El Niño.

In recent years, droughts, floods, heatwaves, and erratic rainfall have disrupted agricultural production across Europe, North America, South Asia, and Africa-the world's major food-producing regions. Reduced harvests inevitably tighten global supplies and drive prices upward. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war, have disrupted global grain, fertilizer, and energy markets. Higher fuel and fertilizer prices have significantly increased production costs for farmers, with consumers ultimately bearing the burden.

Despite these challenges, Bangladesh has made remarkable progress in agriculture over the past five decades. Once a food-deficit nation, the country is now among the world's leading rice producers. High-yielding and climate-resilient rice varieties developed by the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) and other research organizations have played a crucial role in boosting production. Salt-tolerant, drought-tolerant, flood-tolerant, and disease-resistant rice varieties have strengthened farmers' resilience against climate risks.However, a major bottleneck remains. The country's agricultural extension system has yet to ensure the rapid dissemination of newly developed technologies and improved crop varieties from research stations to farmers' fields. Bridging this research-to-farm gap is now one of Bangladesh's most pressing priorities.
To withstand global food price volatility, greater investment in agricultural research and innovation is imperative. Reducing dependence on imported agricultural inputs-including fertilizers, seeds, and fuel-should be a strategic objective. Expanding domestic fertilizer production, promoting organic fertilizers, and adopting precision agriculture can reduce structural vulnerabilities. Likewise, investments in improved crop varieties, mechanization, digital agriculture, and smart farming technologies will enhance productivity while lowering production costs. International evidence consistently shows that agricultural research generates exceptionally high economic returns, often yielding 20 to 40 times the initial investment.

Food security, however, depends not only on increasing production but also on minimizing post-harvest losses. According to the United Nations, a substantial share of global food production is lost or wasted each year. Bangladesh also experiences considerable post-harvest losses due to inadequate storage, transportation, and marketing systems, particularly for perishable commodities such as fruits and vegetables. Investments in cold storage facilities, efficient supply chains, and modern storage infrastructure can often deliver greater food security at a lower cost than expanding production alone.

Another critical component is strengthening social protection. Rising food prices disproportionately affect low-income households. Therefore, food assistance programs, targeted subsidies, and other social safety net mechanisms should remain flexible and ready for rapid expansion during periods of food inflation.In essence, Bangladesh must move beyond a policy framework focused solely on increasing production and adopt a risk-based food security strategy. Diversifying food import sources, strengthening strategic grain reserves, and improving market surveillance will enable the country to respond more effectively to global market disruptions and stabilize domestic prices.

Today, food security is no longer merely an agricultural issue; it is closely linked to economic stability, environmental sustainability, scientific innovation, trade, and national security. Rising global food prices undoubtedly pose significant challenges for Bangladesh, but they also present an opportunity to modernize agriculture and build a more resilient food system.

Looking ahead, Bangladesh has no viable alternative but to accelerate the dissemination of high-yielding and climate-resilient crop varieties, increase investment in agricultural research and innovation, promote modern farming technologies, reduce production costs, minimize food losses through improved storage systems, and strengthen domestic food production to reduce import dependence. Achieving these goals will require coordinated efforts by farmers, researchers, policymakers, the private sector, and consumers alike. With sound planning, evidence-based policies, and sustainable agricultural development, Bangladesh can not only withstand future global food shocks but also build a stronger, more secure, and resilient food system for generations to come.

The writer is Senior Communication Officer, Research Wing, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI)