The El Niño Alarm: Bangladesh Cannot Afford to Wait

El Niño is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean characterised by the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures, which disrupts global weather patterns. A farmer does not need to read an El Niño forecast to know when rain comes late. A rickshaw-puller does not need to study climate science to feel the road burn under his wheels. A mother in the coastal belt does not need to track global temperatures to taste salt in her drinking water.

But the science is clear. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns of an 80 per cent probability of El Niño conditions during June-August 2026. NOAA predicts an 82 per cent chance for May-July 2026 and a 96 per cent chance it will persist through February 2027. These are not distant warnings; they are imminent realities.

El Niño is a periodic warming of Pacific Ocean waters that disrupts weather patterns worldwide. For Bangladesh, this means higher temperatures, erratic monsoon rainfall, prolonged heatwaves, and growing pressure on water, food, and public health. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department forecasts up to 10 heatwaves over the next three months.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns of an 80 per cent probability of El Niño conditions during June-August 2026. NOAA predicts an 82 per cent chance for May-July 2026 and a 96 per cent chance it will persist through February 2027.

Cascading Impacts
The effects are already being felt. Extended heatwaves have disrupted daily life, increased heat-related illnesses, and reduced labour productivity. The impacts of El Niño are multidimensional and like every other climatic event, its impact is also cross-cutting issue.

Agriculture & Food Security
• Reduced Crop Yields: Disrupted rainfall and higher temperatures threaten crop yields. The Aman rice season, which depends heavily on monsoon rains, is especially at risk. Even a modest decline in production could threaten food security, and models suggest Aman yields could fall by 8-12 per cent during El Niño years.
• Increased Costs: Unpredictable rains can delay planting and raise irrigation costs. Heat can also weaken livestock.
• Wider Economic Impact: The impacts are not just local; they have led to government-approved rice imports to stabilize domestic prices and have caused instability in agricultural exports, with vegetable exports crashing by 58 per cent in the first half of fiscal year 2024�"25 after a previous El Niño event in 2023.

Water Resources
El Niño's impact on water resources is two-fold, creating a paradox of scarcity and flooding.
• Reduced Freshwater & Salinity: The combination of reduced rainfall and higher evaporation can weaken river flows and lower groundwater levels. These triggers increased salinity intrusion in the coastal belt, endangering freshwater supplies for drinking and agriculture.
• Increased Flooding Risk: Paradoxically, while total rainfall may be below normal, El Niño also increases the risk of sudden, intense rainbursts leading to flash floods and landslides. This is due to the overall weather system becoming more unpredictable.

Public Health
The health impacts are severe and widespread, disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable.
• Heat-Related Illnesses: Prolonged heatwaves cause a rise in heat-related illnesses, including dehydration, heatstroke, dizziness, fainting, and kidney complications.
• Strain on Healthcare Systems: These health crises place a significant strain on public health systems, which are often ill-equipped to handle a surge in patients.
• Vulnerable Populations: The poor, outdoor workers, children, and the elderly are most at risk. The situation in densely populated areas like the Cox's Bazar refugee camps is particularly precarious.

Energy Sector
The energy sector faces unprecedented stress from both supply-side disruptions and demand-side surges.
• Surge in Electricity Demand: Prolonged heatwaves cause a sharp rise in electricity demand due to increased cooling needs, putting immense pressure on the national grid.
• Supply Disruptions: The sector is already facing deep-seated financial instability and fuel import challenges. Extreme weather events, including cyclones and rough seas, can disrupt the supply of imported fuels like LNG, leading to power outages.
• Financial Stress: The high cost of securing energy supplies, such as importing LNG at elevated prices, is significantly increasing government subsidies and adding to the country’s debt burden.

Economy & Livelihoods
The economic damage is extensive and multi-faceted, affecting everything from national GDP to individual household incomes.
• National Economic Loss: The economic impact is already being felt, with an estimated annual loss of approximately USD 1.78 billion, equivalent to roughly 0.4 per cent of the country’s GDP.
• Lost Productivity: Extreme heat causes Bangladesh to lose nearly 250 million working hours annually, a direct hit to national productivity.
• Impact on Key Industries: The ready-made garment (RMG) sector, a cornerstone of the economy, is also at risk. Without effective adaptation, the sector could face export losses of nearly USD 65 billion and the loss of around one million potential jobs by 2030. Climate change is now recognised as a major policy challenge for the economy.

Fisheries, Livestock & Urban Life
• Fisheries: The fisheries sector is threatened by both reduced river flows, which affect breeding grounds, and by the increased risk of saltwater intrusion into freshwater habitats.
• Livestock: The heat can weaken livestock, reducing productivity and causing economic losses for farmers.
• Urban Life: The impacts are acutely felt in cities like Dhaka. Prolonged heatwaves exacerbate existing problems like urban heat stress, poor drainage, waterlogging, and air pollution.

A Call to Action: What Must Be Done
Bangladesh has shown remarkable resilience�"strengthening early warning systems, promoting drought-tolerant crops, and integrating climate adaptation into national planning. But resilience alone is no longer enough. We need urgent, coordinated action.

For Policymakers
• Develop a national heat action plan with early warning systems, school closure rules, outdoor labour rest breaks, and emergency cooling centres.
• Strengthen early warning systems by integrating scientific forecasting with local knowledge and community-led systems.
• Translate seasonal forecasts into local guidance on seed choice, planting dates, irrigation, and livestock protection.
• Prioritise long-term investments in renewable energy, sustainable water management, and climate-resilient infrastructure.
• Strengthen agricultural support with timely weather information, affordable crop insurance, and wider access to climate-smart technologies.
• Provide anticipatory cash assistance to farmers before distress becomes visible.

For Business Leaders
• Invest in climate-resilient supply chains to reduce vulnerability to heatwaves and erratic rainfall.
• Implement workplace heat safety protocols�"upgraded ventilation, mandatory rest breaks, and access to drinking water for outdoor workers.
• Prepare the power sector for unprecedented climatic stress, as summer peak demand is projected to exceed 18,500 MW.
• Support community-level adaptation through CSR initiatives focused on heat resilience and water conservation.

For NGOs and INGOs
• Scale anticipatory action models that integrate scientific forecasting with local knowledge as piloted by Save the Children and RIMES in Kurigram.
• Strengthen community-led early warning systems so vulnerable populations receive timely information.
• Establish cooling centres in urban areas, particularly for children, the elderly, and outdoor workers.
• Support farmer training on climate-smart agriculture and drought-tolerant varieties.
• Advocate for policy change - amplify the voices of affected communities and hold policymakers accountable.

The Time to Act Is Now
El Niño is not just a seasonal weather event; it is a stark reminder that climate change is intensifying natural variability into recurring crises. Bangladesh cannot afford to wait for the crisis to arrive before we respond. The science is clear. The warning signs are evident.
The time to act is now.