Ganges Treaty: Can Dhaka and Delhi turn water politics into strategic cooperation?

With the Ganges Treaty nearing expiry, India and Bangladesh are facing a defining diplomatic test! The answer cannot lie in another temporary formula for dividing water, but in building confidence through data, flexibility, shared stewardship and political will on both sides to protect each others due rights and boost spirit of friendship and mutual understanding as well as respect. 

A river has no passport. It does not recognise the borders that divide the countries through which it flows. Nor does it adjust its course to political priorities and interests. 

As the 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty approaches the end of its 30-year term in December ( 31@2:25pm) 2026, India and Bangladesh have a rare opportunity to change that approach from talking over a fixed share of water to jointly administering a river whose future is becoming prone to man-made jeopardy. 

Last week, President Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir urged Indian High Commissioner Dinesh Trivedi, who called on him at Bangabhaban, to take effective measures for equitable sharing of common rivers’ waters, including the Ganges and the Teesta. Trivedi, according to Presidents Press Wing, said: India is taking positive measures. 

The question is not only whether the water diplomacy will return to the centre of bilateral ties. It is whether two countries can build a framework capable of withstanding the climate change, the domestic political pressures and the competing demands on common rivers water.

The Ganges is the root-lifeline channel connecting India and Bangladesh from the Himalayas. It begins at Gomukh in Uttarakhand, where the Bhagirathi River emerges from the Gangotri Glacier, while the Alaknanda River follows a separate Himalayan course. At Devprayag, the two rivers meet and become the Ganges. Now the Ganges flows through several Indian states before entering Bangladesh with the name the Padma and reaching the Bay of Bengal. 

The 1996 Treaty was a landmark achievement. Signed by Indian Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on 12 December 1996 in New Delhi at 2:25pm, after years of dispute over the Farakka Barrage, it established a formula for sharing Ganges waters at Farakka during the dry season (1 Jan-to-31 May).

The arrangement was based on the river flow. When the flow at Farakka is 70,000 cusecs or less, the two countries receive equal shares (50:50). Between 70,000 and 75,000 cusecs, Bangladesh receives 35,000 cusecs and India the balance. At 75,000 cusecs or above, India receives 40,000 cusecs and Bangladesh the balance. The treaty also provides for each country to receive 35,000 cusecs during alternate three 10-day periods between 11 March and 10 May. If the flow falls below 50,000 cusecs in any 10-day period, the two governments are required to enter immediate consultations on emergency adjustments.

The river of 2026 is not necessarily the river contemplated in 1996. The climate change is altering rainfall patterns and increasing hydrological uncertainties.  Glacier and snow dynamics are changing. 

Population growth, urbanisation, irrigation and industrial demand are putting additional pressures on water resources. Extreme floods and prolonged dry spells are becoming utmost consequential. 

Much of the Ganges basin lies within India. India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has recently indicated Bihar's water interests will be considered as the future of the Ganges arrangement is examined. Also, India's domestic water realities need to be recognised in any durable settlement, Indian government stressed.

Joint Rivers Commission (JRC) already provides an institutional mechanism for the two countries to discuss shared rivers, exchange information and address technical issues. The 1996 Treaty also established a Joint Committee to monitor implementation and river flows. The institutional framework exists; what is needed is to make it more responsive to a changing river.

Renewal, moreover, should mean more than simply extending the old treaty. A post-2026 framework should be designed for the river conditions of the coming decades rather than reproduced from 1996.

The treaty itself provides for review every five years or earlier, while renewal is subject to mutual consent.

First, data must become the foundation of trust. Near-real-time sharing of river-flow data, rainfall, snow and glacier conditions, sediment loads and relevant upstream water use could reduce uncertainty and strengthen confidence on both sides.

Second, the renewed framework needs contingency mechanisms.

Extreme droughts and floods demand advance planning. A system based mainly on fixed allocation formulas may struggle when hydrological conditions become unpredictable. Clearly defined provisions for exceptional circumstances could make the agreement more resilient.

Third, two countries should move towards integrated river-basin management. The Ganges cannot be understood solely through the gates of Farakka. Its ecological and economic life extends across tributaries, wetlands, groundwater systems, agricultural zones, floodplains, the delta and the Sundarbans.

Water negotiations become difficult when every additional unit of water is treated as a zero-sum gain. But the Ganges does not have to be governed through that logic. Better and transparent data benefits both countries. Timely flood  forecasting benefits both. Better basin management can benefit both. Recent flood in Nepal and its fallout is an eye opener for both India and Bangladesh.

The Ganges can become not merely a subject of bilateral talks but a test case for climate-resilient, basin-wide cooperation.

India and Bangladesh do not need to agree on every aspects of their bilateral ties to cooperate on the Ganges. Nor should water diplomacy become hostage to a wider political temperature between New Delhi and Dhaka.

The forthcoming expiry of the 1996 Treaty should not be treated merely as the end of a 30-year accord. It should be treated as the opportunity to write a more richer-chapter of closer ties and understanding between the two neighbouring countries.

Two countries can allow the Ganges to remain trapped in cycles of suspicion, mistrust, periodic negotiations and political recrimination. Or they can build a modern model of cooperation around a river that has connected them more divinely and inherently than their man made borders divide them.

The Ganges has taught us one lesson: Water does not recognise borders or barriers. And its future cannot belong to one country only. Bangladesh has the right to get its due share of the common rivers.

After 2:25 pm on forthcoming 31 December, the Ganges Treaty officially comes to an end! Then the dry season begins. The speed and nature of the catastrophe that will descend on the lives of 40-crore people along sandbars of the Ganges in both countries could not be speculated - in any way. And then both political governments together will not be capable to handle the consequences and fallout.