Three separate public opinion surveys conducted ahead of the 13th National Parliamentary Election have produced differing projections, though two indicate clear electoral dominance by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), while the third points to a tight contest with Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami.
Taken together, the surveys suggest significant voter realignment and shifting alliance dynamics in the run-up to the polls amid a changed political and legal landscape.
The largest of the three surveys was carried out by Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD), based on responses from 41,500 voters across all 300 constituencies. The survey projects that the BNP-led alliance could secure around 208 seats, while the Jamaat-led alliance may win 46 seats. The Jatiya Party is projected to win three seats, other parties four seats and independent candidates 17 seats, with contests in 22 constituencies described as closely fought.
The findings were released on Monday at the Krishibid Institution in Dhaka. Presenting the report, EASD Chief Executive Officer Shamim Haider Talukder said the survey followed the Primary Sampling Unit method across all constituencies. Data were collected digitally using Kobo Toolbox between January 18 and January 31 by 150 trained data collectors, covering 2,766 PSUs nationwide.
According to the survey, 64 percent of respondents were male and 36 percent female, while 37.2 percent were aged between 18 and 30. Businesspeople formed the largest occupational group (21.9 percent), followed by household and informal sector workers (19.1 percent), students (14.5 percent) and agricultural and rural labourers (13.2 percent).
On voting preference, 66.3 percent expressed support for BNP, followed by Jamaat-e-Islami with 11.9 percent, the Jatiya Party with around four percent and independents with 2.6 percent. BNP support was particularly strong among women voters at 71.1 percent, and in Chattogram and Sylhet divisions, while Jamaat showed relative strength in Barishal and Khulna.
The survey also indicated a sharp shift among former Awami League voters, with 80 percent now favouring BNP and 15 percent Jamaat-e-Islami. About 66 percent believe the BNP-led alliance will form the next government, while 68 percent prefer BNP Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman as Prime Minister.
A second survey by the Nationalist Research Cell (NRC) echoed BNP's advantage. Released at the National Press Club, it projected that BNP could secure 77 percent of the vote and win 220 seats. Jamaat-e-Islami was projected to win 57 seats, with the rest split among smaller parties and independents. The NRC said its survey was conducted by former Dhaka University students and PhD researchers using field-level data.
In contrast, a third survey by the International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD) projected a closely contested race.
Based on responses from 63,615 voters across eight divisions, it forecast 105 seats for the Jamaat-led alliance and 101 seats for the BNP-led alliance, with competition in 75 constituencies. IILD said voter turnout could reach 92.9 percent, with alliance support nearly evenly split.
