The landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the West Bengal assembly elections has signaled a message for Bangladesh on how it would get on well with its closest neighbor in the coming years after the seismic shift in the state's political landscape.
However, Dhaka's instant reaction was nothing but positive, with State Minister for Foreign Affairs Shama Obaed describing the changes as India's internal affairs that will not impact Bangladesh. But she is optimistic about advancing talks amicably over long-standing contentious problems like water sharing, border killings and the 'push-in' issue, on which the BJP capitalized in the elections, making a strong campaign propaganda with a focus on 'illegal Bangladeshi infiltration' and promising to secure borders.
Water sharing is another protracted factor that has long been unresolved. Bangladesh and India came close to the Teesta water-sharing deal during the then Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Bangladesh in 2011. Mamata Banerjee's objection stalled the agreement. On the other hand, there has been little visible progress on the renewal of the Ganges water-sharing treaty, which expires in December this year.
Unfortunately, the Teesta agreement did not see the light due to an objection raised by the Chief Minister of West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee, who, per se, conceded defeat in her constituency to BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari, and her party, the Trinamool Congress (TMC), managed to bag only 81 seats, with the majority of 206 seats out of the total 294 going to the BJP. This upending election result has brought the BJP to power and ended Mamata Banerjee's 15-year rule in the state.
Now, could it be hoped that prolonged issues between Bangladesh and India would be brought to the table for discussion and eventually be resolved? For many years, India's central government has been of the view that the Teesta water-sharing deal has been shelved because of Mamata Banerjee's opposition. Now that narratives have been erased with the BJP conquering West Bengal.
This is the point Dhaka could bring to light, pointing out the fact that the BJP now holds power at both the state and central levels. That is why the West Bengal government is obligated to follow the advice, suggestions and strategic decisions of the central leadership.
But the omen doesn't bode well. Judged by the BJP's political agenda over the past decade, there is a possibility that the Hindu nationalist party may spread its communal or anti-Muslim political narratives to West Bengal. This is evidenced by the fact that around 2.7 million voters, largely from the Muslim community, were excluded from the voter list as part of implementing the National Register of Citizens (NRC). This is one of the cogent reasons that resulted in the TMC's defeat. The BJP-led central government made it happen after successfully pushing for electoral roll revisions that removed Muslim voters from the voter list, with allegations that they were illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. This has weakened the TMC's vote bank and subsequently made it fail in the state elections.
What's more, after the demolition of Babri Masjid in 1992, we had heard of a lot of incitements from BJP leaders to spread communal violence in Bangladesh. Even after the fall of the Awami League government, there were provocative statements from BJP leaders. Not only that, in the latest West Bengal election, such kinds of political narratives were used, describing mostly Muslims as outsiders from Bangladesh.
People of Bangladesh are concerned and also hopeful at the same time that there will be a change in the political narratives of the Indian leadership in order to strengthen relations and resolve bilateral issues between the two countries. Future developments under BJP government in West Bengal and particularly in Delhi central government will shape the bilateral ties between the two close neighbours.
