PARIS, Jun 25: At least 101 million people in Europe are expected to experience temperatures in excess of 35C on Thursday, including 50 million in France and 18 million in Germany, according to AFP calculations.
Maximum temperatures are expected to surpass 30C for more than 380 million people across Europe excluding Turkey, representing nearly two-thirds of the population, according to an analysis based on forecasts from the German weather service and 2025 population projections from the Joint Research Centre.
The figures broadly align with projections by the Austrian NGO Klimadashboard, and are up from Wednesday, when the German weather service said 94 million people were impacted by temperatures exceeding 35C.
Mainland France was again the most impacted, where around 63 million people will see temperatures of more than 30C.
The heat will also surpass 30C for 70 million people in Germany, 48 million in Italy and 38 million in Britain.
Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands will also be impacted by the heatwave searing much of Western Europe since last weekend, as will people in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Croatia.
AFP used a method similar to the one used by Klimadashboard, cross-referencing the DWD weather forecast model (calculated at midnight GMT) with population density.
Residents are counted if the model predicts temperatures exceeding 30°C or 35°C at their location at any point during the day.
As the model has a resolution of approximately 6.5 km, it cannot fully capture urban heat islands, David Jablonski of the NGO Klimadashboard told AFP.
Consequently, "we likely underestimate affected people in dense urban areas", the organisation noted on its European Heat Tracker website.
A record heatwave that has gripped much of Europe could be linked to 212 deaths in Spain between Sunday and Wednesday, according to estimates from a public institute.
The MoMo monitoring system compiles daily death statistics in Spain and compares them with the levels foreseeable based on historical records.
It also incorporates external factors, such as weather data from the national weather agency AEMET, to assess likely causes of mortality spikes.
Its data registered an excess mortality of 98 deaths for the same four days of 2025, during what was the hottest summer on record in a country on the front line of climate change.
The number of heat-related deaths in Spain between May 16 and September 30 last year hit 3,832, an 87.6-percent increase from the same period in 2024, according to MoMo data." AFP
