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Bangladesh faces Tk 35k cr surge in fuel import costs: ZCA
Published : Thursday, 3 September, 2026 at 1:37 PM
Observer Online Report
Collected Photo
Bangladesh's energy import costs could surge by up to $2.8 billion or nearly Tk 35,000 crore in 2026 compared to last year if global oil, gas, and coal prices remain at current levels.
An analysis published by the international research organization Zero Carbon Analytics (ZCA) revealed the details on Thursday (September 3). According to the report, fossil fuel import expenses in the current fiscal year could rise nearly 30 per cent compared to 2025.
This additional expenditure represents roughly 10 per cent of the country’s total trade deficit, threatening to intensify inflation, strain foreign exchange reserves and reduce the country’s import cover from 5.7 months to 5.2 months.
This crisis stems heavily from over-reliance on imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which feeds 64 per cent of the nation’s power generation.
Recent supply disruption pushed power shortage to 3,592 MW on August 11, accounting for nearly 20 per cent total demand.
The shortages have crippled domestic industry and agriculture, leaving six out of seven major fertilizer factories closed or operating at reduced capacity, while apparel factories in Savar, Ashulia, and Dhamrai reported a 15 to 20 per cent drop in production alongside rural load shedding of up to 8 to 10 hours daily.
Bangladesh relied on imports for 46 per cent of its total energy supply in 2023, while nearly two-thirds of its 2025 LNG supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Although the government has secured spot LNG cargoes from international suppliers and contracted 117 cargoes from the US through 2038, three major LNG suppliers recently declared force majeure, highlighting the ongoing volatility of international contracts.
Energy experts caution against relying on imported fossil fuels to solve systemic vulnerabilities. Zakir Hossain Khan, Managing Director of Change Initiative, noted that LNG cannot guarantee energy independence and advocated for expanded investments in rooftop solar.
Shafiqul Alam, Lead Energy Analyst for Bangladesh at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), warned that proposed LNG terminals could drive annual import costs up to $14 billion by 2030, raising electricity and gas tariffs while weakening industrial competitiveness.
ZCA and IEEFA emphasize that rooftop solar power offers a vital path toward reducing import dependency. With renewable accounting for just over 5 per cent of generation in 2025, IEEFA estimates that every 1 MW of installed rooftop solar saves nearly $180,000 annually in imported fuel costs. Analysts stress that expanding domestic gas exploration, solar energy, battery storage, and cross-border hydropower is essential to building long-term energy security.
-SA
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Editor : Iqbal Sobhan Chowdhury
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Published by the Editor on behalf of the Observer Ltd. from Globe Printers, 24/A, New Eskaton Road, Ramna, Dhaka.
Editorial, News and Commercial Offices : Aziz Bhaban (2nd floor), 93, Motijheel C/A, Dhaka-1000.
Phone: PABX- 41053001-06; Advertisement: 41053012; 01793317829, 01550707291, E-mail: [email protected], [email protected] Online: email: [email protected] 41053014; 01550707297 Advertisement: 01550707296
