Bangladesh is a developing country, and one of its most pivotal economic sources is the remittance transferred by a large number of Bangladeshi workers working overseas. It developed a strong infrastructure for exporting human resources over the years, making it one of the South Asia's biggest suppliers of migrant labor. After ready-made garments, remittance is considered to be the highest source of foreign earning for Bangladesh. In 2025 Bangladesh earned the highest annual inflow with a record of USD 32.8 billion from remittance. Monthly remittance outreached USD 3.22 billion just in December 2025. They mostly work in the Middle Eastern Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar.
According to Bangladesh state of the economy 2025 75% of Bangladeshi migrant workers are based in Middle east. Their remuneration contributes notably to household consumption, national economic stability and poverty reduction. However, economists refer to the concentration of Bangladeshi migrant labor force in a small group of gulf cooperation council nation as a single point failure risk, as a single external event may simultaneously disrupt the entire system. The 2026 conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iranrattled down the GCC labor Market.
According to Bangladesh Bank data, in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 (July-September 2025), approximately 45.40 percent of total remittance income equivalent to approximately BDT 3.44 billion out of a total of BDT 7.59 billion originated from the six GCC countries. Iran's counter strikes aimed Saudi,UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, where the vast majority of Bangladeshi laborers are working.The gulf states responded by closing their airspace cancelling more than 360 flights connecting Bangladesh to middle eastern destination. Workers who returned to Bangladesh on leave are unable to go back to their work and some are also facing deportation risk.It has also raised grave safety concern since missile strikes during the crises have reportedly killed migrant workers in that area, indicating the direct human cost of geopolitical instability.
Since mid-March 2026, the onward condition has aggravated, with occasional airspace limitation and tighter security across the GCC countries. Flights have partially restored, but only 60-70% of the normal service is available which has led to the delays and backlogs for migrant labors. Recruitment has also decelerated, signifying that instability may prolong, uncertainty regarding visa validity has intensified. Travel disruptions have prevented timely return to host countries, increasing the risk of visa expiration and employment insecurity.
Employees in the gulf stated that companies are already halting their action and postponing wage, there has been a 10-20% reduction in overtime opportunities in sectors such as construction and services, along with wage delays of up to 2-6 weeks.Monetary channels also may destabilize remittance flow if payment system and money transfer services face fluctuation or closures. Unpredictability of exchange rate and global financial market may influence the value of transfer. However, some of the migrants might increase their remittance by sending their saving due to uncertainty but this displays safety concerns rather than secured and stable income.
Halting of flights, interruption in new visa approval and hold on recruitment in gulf states reflects the risk of decline in future remittance creation. If the disruption carries on for more than three months to a year migrant workers who lose their jobs might not be replaced by new workers and those who are still,there will slowly run through their saving. The remittance flow of Bangladesh might slow down in the long run or reduce briefly under such circumstance. The effect is more prominent in Bangladesh because it depends heavily on gulf states as a substantial portion of its work force are unskilled and low skilled.
Bangladeshi laborers are more likely to travel to middle east even though other nations like japan, china and Europe provide opportunities for migrant workers. Bangladesh is fundamentally positioned to earn less per worker than regional competitors such as India, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines, and to lose employment first when Gulf economic conditions declines.
The ongoing tensions have also had an impact on Indian migrants, who are considered among the largest human resource exporters. However, as India has a diverse migration network and wider distribution channels of workers across various regions, unlike Bangladesh, the impact on India is comparatively more limited.Bangladeshi worker in the gulf earns comparatively 50% less than other workers and this wage disparity is stark occurring because of differences in skill levels, language proficiency, and the negotiating leverage of workers' home governments. Minimum 20 to 25 districts of Bangladesh that depend primarily on remittance income could face acute economic hardship, creating potential social destabilization in areas where remittances are the dominant income source.
Dual exposure is faced by Bangladesh due to the recent crises as it is a labor exporter to the gulf state as well as an energy importer from the gulf. The 2026 conflict fuels up this as remittances is at risk to decline, at the same time, Bangladesh's fuel import bill is rising due to Brent crude price increases. Bangladesh should take immediate response to address it.
Following the escalation, global oil prices have fluctuated between $95 and $110 per barrel, increasing Bangladesh's fuel import costs by an estimated 10-15% and putting additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves and inflation. The government should delicately cooperate with gulf mission to safeguard its workers, keep track on remittance flow and collaborate with IMF and World Bank to draw on foreign financing, reducing load on foreign exchange. The government also should take necessary initiative to set emergency migrant worker fund to assisting families and dependents in time of such crises specifically in the remittance reliant districts.
The writer is a student, International Relations, University of Dhaka
