Global diesel prices have surged to record highs as exports from major fuel-producing nations dropped significantly due to ongoing conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine.
Market analysts warn that prices could escalate further if supply conditions deteriorate in the coming months.
Diesel futures in Europe reached an all-time high last week, more than doubling from prices recorded at the beginning of 2026.
Supply disruptions in the Red Sea region have exacerbated the situation, impacting maritime routes used for transporting the majority of Saudi Arabian diesel exports.
Escalating warfare in the Middle East and Ukraine has damaged several oil refineries, placing immense pressure on refining facilities worldwide to step up output.
Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed that US refineries operated at their highest capacity in eight years in late August.
In a newsletter published Monday, the IEA stated that most global refineries are operating near maximum capacity, leaving limited leeway to prevent further price surges if supplies tighten.
According to shipping data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler, Middle Eastern diesel exports halved between March and August compared to the same period last year, averaging nearly 800,000 barrels per day.
Kpler data further indicated that Middle Eastern exports accounted for roughly 41 per cent of Europe's total diesel imports in 2025.
Jorge Shaw, a market analyst at Kpler, noted that additional disruptions in the Red Sea could worsen the existing strain on global diesel markets, identifying refining capacity as the primary market constraint.
Meanwhile, Russia imposed a ban on diesel exports in July following reduced output caused by Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries.
Despite statement from US President Donald Trump regarding a proposed agreement to halt strikes on energy infrastructure, both Russia and Ukraine continue targeting fuel facilities.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on Sunday that he expects to meet President Trump within the coming days.