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Super El Niño could cause 451,000 excess deaths by February
Published : Wednesday, 23 September, 2026 at 5:09 PM
Observer online report
Extreme heat linked to this year’s “super El Niño” could cause as many as 451,000 additional deaths worldwide over the six months to February 2027, according to a new report by the University of Chicago-based Climate Impact Lab.
The estimate covers September 2026 to February 2027, based on current temperature forecasts. Researchers warned that heat-related deaths could remain elevated until June or July 2027.
The impact is expected to be concentrated in tropical countries, particularly Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil. The United States is also among the 20 countries projected to record the highest number of additional heat-related deaths, with around 3,500 deaths forecast.
The Climate Impact Lab projects 66,800 additional heat-related deaths across Africa’s Sahel region, including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad. Nigeria alone could see 31,400 additional deaths, while Indonesia could record 19,300 and Sudan 17,600. India is projected to see around 15,800 additional deaths.
Researchers said the El Niño-related heat could also increase deaths linked to droughts, wildfires and changing rainfall patterns.
The report said the number of extremely hot days could rise by 44 per cent compared with normal years. It also found that global land temperatures could be around 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal during the coming months.
Researchers said early action could prevent many deaths. Measures include more accurate heat forecasts, cooling centres, additional medical staff during periods of extreme heat, hydration facilities and greater protection for outdoor workers.
Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and professor at the University of Chicago, said the projected figure of 451,000 deaths was so large that it could become difficult to comprehend its human impact.
He said the figure represented parents, children, grandparents, neighbours and people going about their daily lives.
Researchers described the current El Niño as a possible indication of future climate conditions. The report said the extreme temperatures being experienced now could resemble conditions that climate change may make more common in the coming decades.
Tamma Carleton, a co-author of the study and researcher at the University of California, said expanding emergency services and targeting the most vulnerable areas could save many lives.
The researchers said governments should use the current warning to develop, implement and assess measures that can protect people from extreme heat in the longer term.
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Editor : Iqbal Sobhan Chowdhury
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Published by the Editor on behalf of the Observer Ltd. from Globe Printers, 24/A, New Eskaton Road, Ramna, Dhaka.
Editorial, News and Commercial Offices : Aziz Bhaban (2nd floor), 93, Motijheel C/A, Dhaka-1000.
Phone: PABX- 41053001-06; Advertisement: 41053012; 01793317829, 01550707291, E-mail: [email protected], [email protected] Online: email: [email protected] 41053014; 01550707297 Advertisement: 01550707296
