Beyond Load-Shedding: Bangladesh’s Energy Crisis

For many Bangladeshis, the energy crisis is experienced in the simplest way: the lights go out. But repeated power cuts are only the most visible symptom of a deeper problem. Bangladesh’s current energy difficulties expose vulnerabilities in fuel supply, power generation, imported LNG dependence, infrastructure and long-term energy planning.

Recent developments make this difficult to ignore. According to media reports, the power shortfall reached 2,713 megawatts recently, with national demand at 16,497MW against a supply of 13,784MW. The shortage remained above 2,000MW for much of the day, despite improved gas availability. This raises an important question: if gas supply has improved, why are power shortages continuing?

The answer is that Bangladesh’s energy problem cannot be explained by gas supply alone. Recent reports indicate that total gas supply had returned to around 2,610 million cubic feet per day, roughly the level available before the recent crisis. Domestic gas fields supplied around 1,620mmcfd, while the two floating LNG terminals supplied about 990mmcfd. Yet electricity generation remained constrained because several major power plants were operating below capacity and other sources of supply were disrupted.

The government also needs to focus on the reliability of existing generation capacity. Building new power plants alone cannot guarantee energy security. Maintenance, fuel availability, transmission capacity, distribution networks and emergency backup systems are equally important. Recent events have shown how quickly the system can come under pressure when a major generating unit fails.

This distinction matters. Bangladesh may have substantial installed generation capacity, but installed capacity does not necessarily mean available capacity. The latest crisis illustrates this vulnerability. Reports said that one of the two units of the 1,200MW Matarbari Power Plant had tripped. The Rampal and Payra plants were also generating below capacity, while electricity imports from India’s Tripura had fallen sharply. When several sources become unavailable at the same time, pressure on the national grid increases rapidly.

The dependence on imported LNG adds another layer of risk. International reports said Bangladesh relies on imported LNG for more than 40 per cent of its electricity generation. Disruptions to Gulf supplies have pushed Asian LNG prices close to $30 per million British thermal units, compared with roughly $10 before the latest conflict-related disruption. Bangladesh has consequently been forced to turn to more expensive spot-market purchases. Recent reports said the government had approved LNG imports at prices approaching $30 per MMBtu, almost three times the earlier level.

This is not merely an energy-sector issue. Expensive fuel affects government spending, industrial activity and household costs. Reports have indicated that high LNG prices were slowing Bangladesh’s industrial growth, contributing to electricity outages and putting additional pressure on government finances through higher gas subsidies. For an economy heavily dependent on manufacturing and exports, unreliable energy can disrupt production schedules, raise operating costs and create delays. The effects are also felt by ordinary people, as students lose study hours, online work is interrupted and shops and small businesses lose productive time. In hospitals and other essential services, reliable electricity is a necessity.

That is why Bangladesh needs to treat energy security as a long-term development issue rather than an emergency-management problem. Domestic gas exploration deserves sustained attention, while renewable energy should become a more meaningful part of the country’s energy mix. Diversification does not mean abandoning LNG overnight. Bangladesh will continue to need imported energy while domestic production and alternative sources develop. However, excessive dependence on a single fuel or supply route leaves the economy vulnerable to events beyond its control.

The government also needs to focus on the reliability of existing generation capacity. Building new power plants alone cannot guarantee energy security. Maintenance, fuel availability, transmission capacity, distribution networks and emergency backup systems are equally important. Recent events have shown how quickly the system can come under pressure when a major generating unit fails. Better demand forecasting is also necessary. Energy planning should reflect realistic patterns of industrialisation, urbanisation and household consumption. New projects should be assessed not only by installed capacity but also by fuel requirements, cost, expected utilisation and reliability.

Bangladesh cannot control international conflicts, global LNG prices or disruptions to international shipping routes. It can, however, reduce the extent to which such events determine whether factories operate and households receive uninterrupted electricity. The improvement in gas supply should therefore be welcomed, but not mistaken for a complete solution. The latest developments have again shown the vulnerability of relying heavily on imported LNG and a limited number of supply points.

The lesson is clear: temporary relief is not the same as energy security. Bangladesh needs an energy system capable of withstanding a failed power plant, a disrupted LNG shipment, a sudden rise in global fuel prices or an unexpected shock to an international supply route. Keeping the lights on today is important. Ensuring that they stay on tomorrow is the bigger challenge.