Part- 01
Bangladesh-Myanmar relations has so far been riddled with uncertainty and doubt. The primary issue of Rohingya repatriation is now only one of the issues that plagues both parties to various degrees. Whether the Naf river between the two countries is a symbol of this, or whether it is a symbol of hope depends on two aspects of this relationship: What "developments" are happening in this region, and what Bangladesh can do to position itself to benefit both parties. It is common knowledge that these two countries have a shared root that runs deep throughout history, but to utilize this root to manifest. Myanmar is divided right now, and that isn't a good sign for the region while Bangladesh and Myanmar are both suffering from issues near the shared border. Bangladesh has a serious role to play if it were to help rectify this dilemma at present.
Myanmar's Transition and the Regional Aftershocks: Myanmar's politics is and has been centered around its Military regime, namely, the Tatmadaw. Again within its turbulent political history, the country also has a very unique example of regime shifts. It's very short democratic regimes lasted only a decade (2011-2021), and that transitioned into the current military regime after the 2021 coup. Myanmar has been largely isolated from the wider geopolitical network afterward, with conflicts cascading through its various provinces. The Tatmadaw has been trying with difficulty to maintain their control over the regime so that a unified Myanmar under their control may persist, but the recent developments of territorial control shows that various ethnic armed groups have controls well over more than half of the country. The closed briefing of Myanmar officials with delegations from neighbouring countries reveal that the Tatmadaw are not overly concerned with losing their control as a regime over the country. This confidence is commendable, yet that does not change that as its neighbour, Bangladesh needs to be largely objective about its present and future options of diplomatic navigation.
Bangladesh is being directly affected by the insurgent movements across its shared borders with Myanmar. The Arakan Army (AA) now controls the 270-kilometres long stretch that these two countries share, and that has not stopped the illegal smuggling of narcotics, arms and people that have persisted long before this takeover. This is on top of the sizeable Rohingya population that has overextended Bangladesh's capacity to support a group of persecuted Myanmar nationals. Bangladesh, despite not recognizing them officially as refugees, is still treating them far better than their home turf has for the past couple of decades. This is no doubt an unfortunate turn of events, but Bangladesh is now also struggling to balance this aid burden and its border control dilemma.
All this might sound bleak since it is nearing a decade since the last mass exodus of Rohingyas in 2017, but there is an opportunity for Bangladesh. The opportunity for dialogue, regional coordination, and regional repositioning is now present for the Bangladesh even during Myanmar's current internal fragmentation. Presently, some of the global superpowers are taking serious notice of Myanmar. China and India are investing heavily in infrastructure projects all over this country. India even has its own Act East strategy to coordinate such developments. The U.S. is starting to take notice of how important this country is with how it quietly removed some of the past sanctions this July. What Bangladesh can do in this scenario is to carefully leverage its position as a humanitarian responder and as an immediate neighbour to Myanmar to shape the regional discourse on Myanmar. Now the question is, how Bangladesh is supposed to achieve that?
Between Global Powers and Regional Developments: The evolving geopolitical landscape between Bangladesh and Myanmar is very different from what it was only a decade ago. Presently, major powers are positioning themselves to take initiative of the Bay of Bengal region. China has its own China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) and the Kyaukphyu Deep-Seaport. India is investing nearly as much as China in Myanmar's infrastructure projects near its coastline. It is even working with the U.S., Australia, the Japanese government as a sort of collective to boost these projects to completion.
Bangladesh has opted to have "cordial" relations with all of its bilateral partner countries as part of its foreign policy. This has had obvious benefits for the country. But the other side of the coin is in how it has to carefully balance its non-military dealings without compromising its sovereignty.
Bangladesh simply cannot jump into the regional politics of the big countries. But even while doing just that, the country can reap economic benefits if it carefully navigates this landscape. However, they have not accounted for Myanmar being a bridge to those channels. If Bangladesh plays it right, it can leverage a close relationship with Myanmar to further its access to the South East Asian region.
(To be continued)
The writer is an Army Officer
