As election nears, Israelis fear polarisation could spark violence

JERUSALEM, Aug 19: Warnings are multiplying that violence could break out between rival political camps ahead of Israel's October 27 election, with powerful figures including top government ministers accused of incitement against opponents.

Israel was rocked in 2023 by mass protests against a judicial overhaul widely seen as an attempt to curb the courts' powers. Protests flared again after Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack, this time against the government's conduct of the war in Gaza and the stalemate in hostage negotiations.

The fighting in Gaza has decreased in intensity and the hostages have returned home, but political tensions inside Israel have not subsided.

The offices of the government-critical Haaretz newspaper and Channel 12 News were vandalised in July, with the culprit leaving a note threatening next to aim a brick at journalists' heads.

A recent poll by Israel's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) found that the scenario seen as most threatening over the next five years was "violent conflict between societal groups" -- narrowly ahead of "Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon". Both were cited by about 39 percent of respondents.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog said in late July that the Shin Bet domestic security service had warned him of "various threats to the integrity of the elections, both internal and external".

Polls show a tight race for the election. Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, has gone on the offensive and warned that his opponents would align with lawmakers from Israel's Arab minority.

Some directly blame the government for fanning the flames. Parliament member OferCassif, of Hadash, an Arab-Jewish communist party, told AFP he was concerned opposition voters could face intimidation before and during the election -- not only from police but from "private, armed militias".

Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who controls the police, has overseen the issuance of more than 200,000 civilian firearm licences since the October 7, 2023 attack, a move critics say is designed to build loyalty to the minister.

Arab citizens, who make up more than 20 percent of Israel's population, and areas with concentrations of liberal, anti-government voters were particularly at risk, Cassif warned.

"It's enough if (armed mobsters) are just going to be present, and people are just going to see them and tell themselves, 'Okay, if that's the situation, it's better if I don't go to vote,'" he said.

Ilana Shpaizman, a senior lecturer in political science at Bar-Ilan University, agreed that the likelier scenario is not open clashes between opposing groups but "violence led by the government towards publics that are more likely to vote against the government". �"AFP