Private sector roars back: Bangladesh PMI surges to 57.8 in July

Bangladesh’s private sector staged a striking comeback in July, with business activity accelerating across most major sectors and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surging to 57.8, signalling a powerful rebound after June’s slowdown.

The latest reading, up sharply from 52.9 in June, marked a decisive return to expansion and offered fresh evidence that private-sector activity is regaining momentum.

Manufacturing led the resurgence, with its PMI jumping to an impressive 65.4 in July. Services also strengthened to 56.0, while agriculture reached 55.2. Construction, however, remained just below the expansion threshold at 49.3, underscoring the uneven nature of the recovery.

The figures were unveiled by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) at a discussion in the capital on Monday, organised in association with Policy Exchange Bangladesh (PEB).

The July rebound came alongside the strongest monthly export earnings in nearly a year, further reinforcing signs that economic activity is beginning to regain traction.

Participants attributed the improvement to stronger business confidence, a brighter external outlook and expectations of a more supportive business environment following the national budget.

But beneath the encouraging numbers lies a critical question for Bangladesh’s economic policymakers: who will keep taking the country’s economic pulse every month when the donor-backed PMI programme comes to an end?

The MCCI-PEB session, titled “Bangladesh PMI: Institutional Transition and the Way Forward”, focused on the future of the index, including its methodology, questionnaire, institutional ownership and long-term sustainability.

MCCI Secretary-General and CEO Farooq Ahmed delivered the welcome remarks, while Hassib Hassan, programme coordinator at PEB, presented an overview of the Bangladesh PMI programme and its latest findings.

Senior representatives from leading businesses and financial institutions, including BRAC Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Robi Axiata, PRAN-RFL Group, Square Pharmaceuticals, Berger Paints and ACI, participated in the discussion.

The PMI has become increasingly important because it provides something Bangladesh’s official economic statistics often cannot: a near real-time snapshot of the private economy.

While GDP figures can take months to emerge, the PMI is released every month, giving businesses, investors and policymakers an early indication of whether economic activity is accelerating or losing steam.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.

The Bangladesh PMI is based on monthly surveys of senior executives from 400 companies across four sectors �" 212 in services, 92 in manufacturing, 50 in construction and 46 in agriculture.

The programme was conceptualised in 2022 and formally launched in November 2023 with support from the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and technical collaboration with the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management.

The first survey was conducted in December 2023, followed by further rounds designed to refine the methodology and establish a representative survey panel.
Since then, the index has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to capture economic shocks almost in real time.

During the July 2024 uprising, the PMI plunged 27 points between June and July, as curfews and a 10-day internet shutdown disrupted factories, banks and transport.

It dropped another 8.8 points between March and April 2025, amid extended public holidays, early US tariffs on apparel and energy shortages.

The index fell by 7.8 points between October and November 2025, reflecting weak global demand and investment uncertainty ahead of the national election.

More recently, the PMI suffered a 9.9-point fall between May and June 2026, as manufacturing and construction slipped into contraction amid prolonged Eid holidays, the onset of the monsoon, weaker pre-Eid demand and the introduction of a new 15 per cent VAT. The dramatic July recovery therefore provides welcome relief after the sharp June deterioration.

Yet participants warned that Bangladesh remains seriously short of high-frequency economic data.