Messi might fall out from the Ballon d’Or – Who’s next in line?

With the 30-man shortlist for the men's Ballon d'Or confirmed following the 2026 World Cup, the race for the award has entered its final stage. However, The Independent's Ballon d'Or power rankings suggest that Lionel Messi's chances of winning the award for a record-extending ninth time are extremely slim.

Spain's title victory – secured by defeating Argentina in the final – will undoubtedly boost the prospects of players like 2024 winner Rodri and Lamine Yamal. Beyond their roles in winning football's most coveted trophy, they will aim to stay ahead of the pack by delivering stellar performances in the new club season.

Nevertheless, Harry Kane remains a favorite in the Ballon d'Or race. Alongside a prolific goal-scoring season for Bayern Munich, he played a pivotal role in key moments for England during the World Cup. The question remains whether he can maintain that exceptional form into the start of the 2026-27 season, ensuring that team achievements do not become the deciding factor at the October ceremony.

At the World Cup, eight-time Ballon d'Or winner Lionel Messi proved that, even at the age of 39, he still remains relevant. Scoring eight goals to propel Argentina to the final and briefly held the record for the tournament's all-time top scorer – a title he later lost to Kylian Mbappé. After leading Inter Miami to the Campeones Cup victory, Sir David Beckham has tipped Messi as a potential Ballon d'Or winner.

Here is the list of the top ten players in The Independent's 2026 Ballon d'Or rankings.

1) Vinícius Júnior sits in tenth place. He enjoyed another strong season with Real Madrid, scoring 22 goals in 36 matches, though – like Mbappé—he failed to secure any silverware for his team. While he shone for Brazil at the World Cup, his efforts were not enough to help the team advance past the Round of 16.

2) Michael Olise is in ninth place. He has established himself as one of the world's best attackers for both Bayern Munich and the French national team. However, he is not yet a strong enough contender to win the Ballon d'Or, though simply being part of the conversation is a significant achievement for him.

3) Jude Bellingham sits at number eight. He helped England secure a third-place finish at the World Cup, scoring seven goals in the process. The season preceding the World Cup was not particularly successful for him; he managed only 13 goal contributions—combining goals and assists—for Real Madrid.

4) Ousmane Dembélé is in seventh place. Had France won the World Cup, he would have been the top favorite, but his team was eliminated in the semi-finals. Although he won Ligue 1 and the Champions League as Paris Saint-Germain's top scorer, his goal tally dropped by half compared to the previous season.

5) Erling Haaland is ranked sixth. He played a pivotal role in taking Norway to the World Cup quarter-finals for the first time since 1998—a stage where his team even eliminated Brazil. He also helped Manchester City secure a domestic double last season, scoring 38 goals.

6) Lionel Messi holds the fifth spot. Even at the age of 39, he scored eight goals to lead Argentina to the final, though the team ultimately lost to Spain. Despite this, he did not win the tournament's best player award. Having announced his retirement from international football, this could be Messi's final opportunity to win the Ballon d'Or.

7) Rodri is in fourth place. He was the anchor of Spain's midfield, delivering a magnificent performance at the World Cup to win the Golden Ball. However, he did not have as stellar a season with Manchester City, as it took him time to regain his form after returning from injury. He has himself admitted that Barcelona is currently prioritizing his teammate, Yamal, for the Ballon d'Or.

8) Lamine Yamal is in third place. The 19-year-old footballer—who finished as a runner-up in 2025—could win the Ballon d'Or for the first time this year. He is the first player under the age of twenty to play in and win both the Euro and World Cup finals. Despite playing with a hamstring injury leading up to this World Cup, he made a significant impact throughout the tournament. Last season, he recorded 24 goals and 18 assists across all competitions for Barcelona, and he has started the new season by scoring eight goals in seven matches.

9) For the second best contender for the Ballon d’Or, there is Kylian Mbappé. Even at the age of 27, he has yet to win the Ballon d'Or. On his way to winning the World Cup Golden Boot, he scored 10 goals, surpassing both Miroslav Klose and later Messi to become the tournament's all-time leading scorer. He scored 42 goals in 44 matches for Real Madrid, although his team failed to win any trophies.