180 Days of Promise, Pressure and Patience

Six months into the BNP-led government’s tenure, we believe Bangladesh stands at a delicate but important economic crossroads. Though the first 180 days have brought encouraging signs- but the 'Honeymoon' period has also reminded us that recovery cannot be measured by statistics alone. Recovery must be ultimately felt in our kitchens, factories, farms and workplaces.

However, we have enough reasons to be cautiously optimistic. Inflation has fallen from above 9.42 percent when the government assumed office to 8.32 per cent in July. Foreign-exchange reserves have strengthened, exports have performed better and remittances remain robust. These are positive developments. But we must repeat a fundamental truth: Slower inflation does not ensure lower prices. For millions of our households, food and essential commodities remain painfully expensive.

We welcome the new government’s Tk 60,000 crore incentive package - consisting of Family and Farmer Cards - and also its ambitious employment targets. Yet ambition must now be translated into delivery. The government cannot create millions of sustainable jobs through public employment alone. We need investment, new industries, stronger SMEs, agro-processing, labour-intensive manufacturing, and logistics and skills development. What we need most is private investment because private investment creates productive jobs, productive jobs create incomes, and incomes create sustainable growth.

Investor confidence therefore deserves urgent attention. Gas and electricity shortages, high borrowing costs, foreign-currency constraints, unpredictable taxation and lengthy approvals continue to discourage both foreign and domestic investors. No investment summit can compensate for an unreliable business environment. That said - Confidence creates investment; investment creates employment; employment creates confidence.

The energy crisis is particularly troubling. Gas shortages are disrupting power generation and industrial production, while load-shedding is affecting households and businesses alike. Temporary imports and subsidies may provide a short breathing space, but they cannot substitute for long-term planning. Domestic gas exploration, diversified LNG supplies, renewable energy, energy efficiency and stronger transmission infrastructure must become national priorities.

We also welcome the government’s social-protection initiatives, but their success will depend on transparency, accurate beneficiary selection and effective grievance mechanisms. A Family Card must reach the genuinely vulnerable. A Farmer Card must deliver timely access to fertiliser, seeds, credit, technology and fair prices.

The revenue shortfall and vulnerabilities in the banking sector continues to remain serious concerns. We need a broader tax base, digital tax administration, stronger action against evasion and meaningful banking reform. These are not merely fiscal matters; they are essential to restoring public confidence in the economy.

Beyond economics, law and order and persisting mob violence demand strict and prompt response. The government must make it unequivocally clear that justice belongs to the courts, not to the streets.
In conclusion, we acknowledge that 6 months is too early to judge a government by the final results of structural reforms. But the period is long enough to establish direction. The direction must now be clear: Less planning, more implementation; less uncertainty, more confidence; less pressure on ordinary people, more opportunity.

As mentioned before, we remain cautiously optimistic. But optimism must be earned through results. The next 6 months should therefore be about delivery�"and delivery must reach the people.