El Niño is a natural warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which has the potential to disrupt the weather patterns throughout the world. Super El Niño is nothing but an exceptionally strong El Niño, which has a greater possibility of affecting rainfall, heat, drought, and storms in most parts of the world. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch, and the forecast indicated that neutral conditions were still preferred until at least the end of 2026, with El Niño deemed likely to arise in May-July with a 61% probability and continue through at least the end of 2026. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society was a little more optimistic in its 20 April 2026 update, giving El Niño a 70% probability of April-June, and 88-94% probabilities later in the year. There is already a growing talk in Bangladesh about a possible super El Niño in the Pacific and its impacts on Bangladesh. The words are dramatic, and that is why it needs to be employed wisely. In the case of the possible effects of super El Niño in Bangladesh, it is not a tale that could be comprehended by Pacific headlines alone. The focus on the conditions of the Bay of Bengal is also necessary.
The Condition of the Bay of Bengal Changes the Assumed Effect of El Niño: El Niño is commonly associated with weaker monsoons, drought, stress on crops, and extreme weather in Southeast Asia. The borrowed assumptions tend to take the following form: a big El Niño leads to a weak South Asian monsoon, which in turn causes the drought and the consequent stress in Bangladesh. But the teleconnection, the connection of weather patterns in geographically separated regions, is more complex for Bangladesh. The conditions of the Bay of Bengal alter the scene. The Bay of Bengal is not an inactive mass of water. It is among the most climate-sensitive marine areas in the world. It grows with the huge discharge of freshwater through rivers into the surface layer of the water, which traps heat at the top. This renders the Bay exceptionally warm and able to affect rainfall, storms, as well as coastal weather in strong ways. In which case, when a climate signal coming out of the Pacific may often be changed by the Bay before it reaches the coastal zone of Bangladesh. This is the reason why Bangladesh cannot afford to take borrowed assumptions.
Impact from a Super El Niño is Complex for Bangladesh: Scientific research already indicates that the relationship between El Niño and the monsoon of Bangladesh is even more complicated than it is commonly thought. Studies have revealed that El Niño has the potential to influence rainfall, temperature, and hydrology in coastal Bangladesh. But there are other data suggesting that the summer monsoon rainfall in Bangladesh is not necessarily decreasing during El Niño years. This is not to say that a super El Niño is not harmful. It implies that the risk might not manifest itself in the most anticipated manner. Rather than a straightforward drought narrative, Bangladesh might be facing a more complex pattern: rainfall that arrives at the wrong time or in the wrong places with more intensity, domestic flooding, heat stress, heat waves in the oceans, pressure on fisheries, and super cyclone risks, all of which are unpredictable. That is, the danger is not a single hazard, but a set of hazards that are interacting simultaneously.
Super El Niño Blends with the Alarming Condition of the Bay of Bengal: Already, Asia has been subjected to remarkably warm ocean conditions and massive ocean heat waves. The Bay of Bengal is not an exception to such a trend, and Bangladesh cannot afford to think that it is immune to the effects. It is not just uncomfortable temperatures when the Bay is hotter. It implies the storage of more energy in the sea. That energy can affect evaporation, atmospheric moisture, fish distribution, ecosystem health, and the severity of storms. Although the number of cyclones may not be soaring up, a very warm Bay can still contribute to the dangerous storms becoming more powerful under the appropriate conditions. That is a caution to a country like Bangladesh that cannot be overlooked. The actual question is therefore not whether or not a strong El Niño will take place. The more fundamental question is what will occur when a potential El Niño collides with an already overheated Bay of Bengal. Such a mix may result in compound climate risks in Bangladesh. Irregular monsoon behavior, coastal stress, marine heatwaves, ecosystem disruption, and storm-related risks can be collectively experienced in one season. These risks are more difficult to foresee and frequently more difficult to control since they do not come with a one-two-three option. This is the reason why Bangladesh's preparedness needs to change.
Preparedness for Bangladesh to Face the Impacts of Complex Climate Risks: Bangladesh has achieved global advancements in cyclone preparedness, early warning, and disaster response. The following tier of climate preparedness should also incorporate ocean warming, marine heatwaves, and complicated coastal hazards that do not fit well into older classifications. Above all, Bangladesh should not be waiting just to read the signs in the Pacific. The Bay of Bengal is warming, transforming, and growing increasingly unstable. A deeper look into the changing patterns of the Bay of Bengal is urgently needed. In case 2026 does become a powerful El Niño year, it will not only be the Pacific that will dictate the fate of Bangladesh. It will be based on the interaction of global climate pressures with the delicate, heat-retaining, and increasingly changing waters of the Bay of Bengal. For a well-informed preparedness against complex climate risks, we have to observe the changing climatic conditions of the Bay first, not only the Pacific.
The writer is a research officer, Bangladesh Institute of Maritime Research and Development (BIMRAD)
