Mecca Defence Pact: Can It Become an Alternative to NATO? 

Military or economic agreements are very common in the modern world. They are formed to protect security and mutual economic interests. Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about the formation of a defence alliance between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. In some places, this alliance is being compared to NATO. If an outside country attacks any of these three countries, in principle, the other two will come forward to protect it. Apparently, the agreement is good and effective for all three countries. Military experts believe that the agreement could take the military equation in the Middle East in a new direction.

Turkey is in a better position militarily and economically among the three countries. It is also the only Muslim member of NATO. If we analyse it very simply, the three countries want to maintain a balance. Pakistan is the nuclear-capable country among the three and is also militarily advanced. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has long been covered by a US-dependent security system, which has recently been damaged by the Iranian attack. However, Pakistan needs the support of Saudi Arabia’s economy. Pakistan’s economy has become more fragile in recent years. There is intense movement in Balochistan and Azad Kashmir. Balochistan has already declared its independence in various media, although the matter is not yet clear.

The entire country is under severe economic pressure. Inflation is high and unemployment is rising. At this time, Saudi Arabia’s financial assistance can strengthen Pakistan. In exchange, security was concluded through an agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia a few days ago. This agreement, known as the Mecca Joint Resistance Agreement, was signed in the holy city of Mecca, Saudi Arabia, recently. The partners have jointly stated that an armed attack on any of the three countries will be considered an attack on all. Adding this condition means building a joint resistance against any aggression. In that sense, it is a military agreement similar to NATO.

Turkey also stands to benefit. If a threat comes from a Western country in the future, Turkey will immediately have the other two countries on its side. Israel’s growing influence is considered to pose some risk to Pakistan, which could also benefit from the agreement.

The question is, why has this agreement been made now, when the Middle East is on the verge of war and instability prevails? Moreover, even if Saudi Arabia is confident in this agreement, can the other Middle Eastern countries that have long depended on the military structure of the United States, as well as those that have been targeted by Iran, also join this agreement? It cannot be said that the United States is now fully ready or able to provide security from an attack by Iran or any other country. The Iranian attack itself caused extensive damage in the Middle East, mainly targeting US military bases. As a result, countries have had to find new ways to secure themselves. Trump’s changing attitude was also risky. The tendency to impose conditions on different countries was another risk for allies. There was no guarantee that this would provide security to Middle Eastern countries in the future.

The Mecca agreement had been under discussion for several years. Ankara, Riyadh and Islamabad had been discussing a defence agreement for some time. The talks began immediately after the Israeli-Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli massacre in Gaza. They gained momentum after the US and Israeli aggression against Iran began.

All three countries are particularly concerned about the aggression against Iran, Israel’s growing influence and attacks in the region. Israel has occupied about one-fifth of Lebanon, demanding that it target the bases of the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, which Iran supports. In that case, it can be said that this alliance could be effective in bringing the three countries together in response to Israeli aggression and any kind of military aggression in the future. Al Jazeera’s Rasul Sardar from Ankara, Turkey, said that according to officials there, growing regional tensions have mainly forced these countries to come under one umbrella.

The Mecca Collective Defence Treaty brings together three types of military power and influence, creating a powerful strategic triangle across West Asia and South Asia. As one of the world’s largest oil exporters and the largest economy in the Arab world, Saudi Arabia provides economic power, infrastructure and political leadership to the alliance. Riyadh’s influence within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the wider Muslim world also lends the alliance diplomatic weight.

Turkey, a NATO member with the alliance’s second-largest army, has joined with advanced military experience, a modern command system and a strong domestic defence industry. Turkey’s defence industry is capable of producing modern armoured vehicles, naval vessels, electronic warfare systems and combat drones, giving the alliance advanced military technology without Western export restrictions.

Pakistan provides one of the world’s largest standing armies and longstanding military experience in the Arabian Peninsula. Discussions are now underway to determine which other countries could come under the pact. There have been indications that more countries may be included in the alliance, in line with Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s plan. In addition to Egypt, countries such as Qatar, Kuwait, Azerbaijan, Syria and Jordan have also been mentioned as potential partners.

Ankara wants to further expand the newly formed defence alliance of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey. According to analysts, the agreement could open a new chapter in the security structure of the Middle East and the wider Muslim world. However, it is not yet clear whether the agreement has taken the form of a full-fledged military alliance or how many countries will join it in the future. If the alliance expands in this way, it will become a stronger bloc, and if it eventually develops into a full-fledged military alliance, it may also emerge as an alternative to NATO.